The 5x5 Risk Matrix Explained
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A 5×5 risk matrix rates a hazard by multiplying its likelihood (1 rare to 5 almost certain) by its consequence (1 insignificant to 5 catastrophic), giving a score from 1 to 25. The score falls into a band: low (1 to 3), medium (4 to 7), high (8 to 14), or extreme (15 to 25). The band tells you how urgently the risk must be controlled, and in a SWMS you record the score before and after controls to show the controls reduce the risk.
The 5x5 risk matrix table
Find the likelihood row and the consequence column: the cell gives the score (likelihood × consequence) and its band.
| Likelihood ↓ / Consequence → | 1 Insignificant | 2 Minor | 3 Moderate | 4 Major | 5 Catastrophic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Almost certain | 5 Medium | 10 High | 15 Extreme | 20 Extreme | 25 Extreme |
| 4 Likely | 4 Medium | 8 High | 12 High | 16 Extreme | 20 Extreme |
| 3 Possible | 3 Low | 6 Medium | 9 High | 12 High | 15 Extreme |
| 2 Unlikely | 2 Low | 4 Medium | 6 Medium | 8 High | 10 High |
| 1 Rare | 1 Low | 2 Low | 3 Low | 4 Medium | 5 Medium |
How to score a risk
- ✓ Likelihood 1 to 5: how likely is this to happen, from rare to almost certain
- ✓ Consequence 1 to 5: how bad is the outcome, from insignificant (no injury) to catastrophic (fatality)
- ✓ Multiply the two for a score from 1 to 25
- ✓ Read the band: low 1-3, medium 4-7, high 8-14, extreme 15-25
- ✓ Apply controls, then re-score to show the residual risk is lower
What each band means you should do
- ✓ Low: manage with routine procedures, but still record the hazard and controls
- ✓ Medium: put specific controls in place and monitor them
- ✓ High: higher-order controls required before work proceeds, documented in a SWMS
- ✓ Extreme: stop, do not start until the risk is reduced by eliminating or substituting the hazard
Using the matrix in a SWMS
A Safe Work Method Statement rates each work step twice: an initial risk before controls, and a residual risk after. If the residual risk is not lower than the initial risk, a reviewer reads it as controls that do nothing, which is a common rejection reason. Our free risk matrix calculator gives you both numbers, and SWMS Pack builds the full ratings into your document automatically.
Common questions
▸What is the highest score on a 5x5 risk matrix?
25: a likelihood of 5 (almost certain) multiplied by a consequence of 5 (catastrophic). That is an extreme risk, meaning work must stop until the risk is reduced.
▸What does likelihood times consequence mean?
It combines how probable a harmful event is with how serious the harm would be. A rare event with a catastrophic outcome and a frequent event with a minor outcome can carry similar scores, which is why both dimensions matter.
▸Why rate risk before and after controls?
To prove the controls work. The before rating shows the raw danger; the after rating shows the residual risk once controls are applied. A SWMS with no drop between the two suggests the controls are not effective.
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